Diary of a Punter: A low-scoring game between Chelsea and Liverpool plus a 14/5 trebl

After Fulham and Everton provided Simon some much-needed profit last weekend he's got two more selections including a tasty both-teams-to-score treble

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It felt a bit like Christmas last week as one bet landed whilst the other missed out; Fulham are the gift that just keeps giving as they continue to score and concede freely, meaning my overs bet was never in doubt. 

Meanwhile, Arsene Wenger acted as Scrooge in this particularly analogy, by leaving the in-form Theo Walcott on the bench for a good 65 minutes against Arsenal – he’s not going to score anytime from there, is he Arsene?!

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Either way, it was much needed profit for the week as I try to claw my way back from losses earlier in the season and I’m in confident mood again this week with an outright bet in the Chelsea v Liverpool match and a both teams to score Premier League treble that I believe will land this weekend. 

Bet 1: Chelsea v Liverpool: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10 (2.10) with Paddy Power

My first bet this week is in the Chelsea versus Liverpool match which kicks-off at 4pm on Sunday and will hopefully see a great game as we’ve become accustomed to when these two sides have met in the past. 

However, a lot has changed of late with Liverpool in particular losing their way and still struggling to fully come to terms with Brendan Rodgers' way of playing the game. 

A draw against Newcastle last week, despite playing them off the park for the majority of the game, underlines the Reds' need for an out-and-out goal scorer and if Chelsea can cope with Luis Suarez, you have to think that Liverpool will struggle.

Chelsea on the other hand have a formidable attacking midfield, with Eden Hazard pulling the strings of this particular puppet show and could be boosted by the potential return of Juan Mata. If Torres was firing on all cylinders too, then they’d be near unstoppable. 

With an open, passing game and plenty of flair players on show, you’d expect this to be a bit of a goal fest but I’m going to be backing the under 2.5 goal market for the game and believe it will be a much closer affair. 

For a start, both teams will have had tough European games in midweek – Liverpool in particular with a trip to Russia with a very thin squad – but more importantly, when you check out the head-to-head stats, you realise that six of the last eight games these two sides have competed in have ended in under 2.5 goals. 

The price is currently 11/10 (2.10) with Paddy Power and I will have £20 of my bankroll on this.

Bet 2: Both Teams to Score Treble at 17/5 (4.38) with Paddy Power

My final bet is a both teams to score treble involving the Wigan v West Brom, Southampton v Swansea and Arsenal v Fulham games. The treble pays around 17/5 (4.38) at Paddy Power and £10 of my bankroll is going on this. 

Head-to-head, Wigan and West Brom have seen five of their last six games where both teams have got on the score sheet, whilst on individual form alone, both sides have had four of their last six games with both teams scoring. Roberto Martinez and Steve Clark have got both their respective sides playing some nice football and both have started the season much better than many had expected. 

Southampton may not have had many results so far in the league and Nigel Adkins must be looking over his shoulder waiting for the axe to fall, but you can’t say that they haven’t been entertaining with goals flowing in their games. 

They definitely have the firepower in the likes of Lallana, Lambert, Ramirez and Rodriguez but they also have an amazing ability to ship goals at the other end. Five of their last six Premier League games have seen both teams score. 

Swansea’s recent Premier League games have seen both teams score in only three of the last six but their recent success against Chelsea and Liverpool (in the League Cup) will leave them well up for playing a side that’s leaking goals. Head-to-head, these sides have seen four of the last six games with both teams scoring.

Which brings us on to Arsenal and Fulham. In recent years, Arsenal would have had no problem keeping a clean sheet at home, but this year they seem much more prone to lapses in concentration and individual errors, whilst players such as Koscielny and Vermaelen just can’t seem to find any form. 

Fulham on the other hand, as mentioned above, just keep on scoring and conceding, making them the perfect side to be up against Arsenal when we’re looking for a both-teams-to-score bet. 

Five of Fulham’s last six games have seen both sides score, whilst four of Arsenals last six have done likewise. Head-to-head, four from the last six Premier League games have seen both Arsenal and Fulham score. 

With Podolski, Walcott, Cazorla and Giroud, Arsenal have plenty of threat going forwards, but after a tough European tie against Schalke (where they dropped two goals), the threat that Fulham carry in Berbatov, Petrov, Ruiz and Duff is arguably just as strong. 

Win a £20 free bet

We also had a winner of the Paddy Power free £20 bet as Dermot Lally correctly predicted that Ipswich would beat Birmingham City. Congratulations to him and if you want to win a £20 bet with Paddy Power this week

Wherever you are this weekend, enjoy your football and your betting and remember that we've got a £20 free bet to give away each week thanks to Paddy Power. To win just email your best tip for the weekend with the word "20BET" in the subject line. 

Be it a well-priced single, an ambitious multiple or any other bet available in all of Paddy Power's football markets around the world for games taking place from 10th - 11th November; surely you can find a winning tip! Just send in your selection (one entry per reader), the price available at Paddy Power, and include "20BET" in the subject line before midday on Saturday to enter. Good luck!

The back or sack dilemma for chairmen at Reading, Southampton and QPR

Mark Hughes has had votes of confidence but QPR are next to bottom and four of their next six games are away from home. Photograph: Alastair Grant/AP

Brian McDermott was invited to the pub last Wednesday for a drink withReading's owner, Anton Zingarevich, to lift his spirits; Mark Hughes has received his weekly vote of confidence from the Queens Park Rangers chairman, Tony Fernandes, and Nigel Adkins has just earned a stay of execution following face-to-face talks with Nicola Cortese, the executive chairman who calls the shots at Southampton. Welcome to life as a manager in the Premier League relegation zone.

Bets are still being taken on the first top-flight manager to lose his job but it would be a major surprise if the book remains open by the end of the month. Southampton, QPR and Reading have started the season so badly that they go into this weekend's fixtures knowing that they will remain in the relegation zone irrespective of whether they pick up a much-needed victory. This is the first time that two Premier League clubs (Reading and QPR) have failed to win any of their opening nine/10 matches and also the first time that the bottom three clubs have been four points or more adrift at this stage of the season.

On the face of it, Adkins's position appears the most precarious. Southampton have lost eight of their 10 league games and conceded 28 goals in the process. In the wake of Monday's 2-0 defeat at The Hawthorns, Adkins was honest enough to admit that he deserves to be the favourite in the sack race because of Southampton's position at the bottom of table. While the majority of fans remain behind him, the fact that Cortese felt compelled to meet with him on Tuesday is evidence that patience is wearing thin in the board room.

The former Scunthorpe manager radiates positivity and, in the eyes of many, deserves to be given a fair crack at the Premier League after picking Southampton up off the floor and leading the club to back-to-back promotions. The other side of the argument is that he should have delivered better results on the back of spending more than £30m in the summer.

Adkins believes there are mitigating circumstances for their bad run. "We've just played the eighth team in the division who have been in the top 10, I'm not sure how many teams who have been promoted actually get a run of fixtures like that," he said after losing at Albion. "I'm looking forward to the fixtures that we've got at home, which I've got to be positive about because we've been very good at St Mary's over the last couple of years."

Proof will be in the pudding. Southampton host Swansea on Saturday in what feels like a must-win game for Adkins. It is also the first of five home games in the next seven fixtures, with Newcastle United, currently 10th, the highest ranked opponents in that sequence. There is, in other words, the chance to turn things around, although Adkins needs to show he is capable of getting the balance right between attacking in numbers, which is central to his beliefs, and tightening up defensively.

Individual errors continue to undermine Southampton and, in doing so, raise questions about whether it was on oversight not to sign a couple of experienced Premier League defenders before the season started, rather than splurging £19m on Gastón Ramírez and Jay Rodriguez. At the moment, Saints need to score three times to have any chance of winning a game. "I will not hide away from the fact that the goals against tally is shocking," Adkins said.

While the Southampton manager is under no illusions that his position is in jeopardy, Hughes gives the impression that he feels almost bulletproof. There is a confidence bordering on arrogance that his position is safe no matter what and that it is a matter of time before QPR climb the table. Yet four of QPR's next six games are away from home, starting with Saturday's trip to Stoke, which was the scene of their last win on their travels, almost 12 months ago. The upcoming home fixtures, against Southampton, on Saturday week, and fourth-from-bottom Aston Villa, a fortnight later, will need to be won to prevent the jeers at Loftus Road turning into something more sinister for Hughes.

There was a huge turnover of players at QPR in the summer and it hard to escape the feeling there was little strategy behind some of the signings. Goals remain difficult to come by – only Sunderland have scored fewer – and Hughes is still searching for the right blend across midfield, where Fernandes admitted Reading "played us off the park initially" in the 1-1 draw at Loftus Road last Sunday. With so many high-profile names at the club and huge wages being paid, QPR's predicament has echoes of West Ham's struggle when they were under Icelandic ownership five years ago and survived on the final day.

Reading finished eighth that season, in their inaugural Premier League campaign, although McDermott is not blessed with a squad anything like as talented as the one that Steve Coppell won promotion with in 2006. The fact that leads have been squandered against Chelsea, Newcastle, Swansea, Fulham and QPR in the league, as well as Arsenal in that extraordinary League Cup game last week, provides a measure of how much harder Reading have found it to execute the gameplan that worked so well for them in the Championship, when they strangled the life out of opponents after going in front.

Life in the Premier League was always going to be much more challenging, yet Zingarevich, the club's Russian owner, was not exactly lavish when it came to coming up with the cash to strengthen. Only WBA spent less than Reading's outlay in the summer, which stood at about £5m, with many of the additions arriving on free transfers. There have been reports in Russia that Zingarevich is interested in signing Andrey Arshavin in January, which would be quite a coup, especially if he could have the same sort of impact at Reading that Jason Roberts did in the Championship in the second half of last season. That, however, is a big "if".

McDermott has been involved in football long enough to know that his future will, inevitably, come under the microscope unless results improve, starting with Saturday's home game against Norwich. He is a popular figure at Reading, where he has worked for the past 12 years, scouting and coaching with great success before stepping up to become manager in 2010, when the team were in a relegation battle. He took Reading into the Premier League against the odds, although Zingarevich was not at the club at the start of the journey and it remains to be seen how much slack he is willing to cut a manager who he inherited rather than appointed.

The dilemma for Zingarevich, Fernandes and Cortese is how long they should leave it before deciding whether to stick or twist. Wolves got it horribly wrong last season, when they sacked Mick McCarthy after the January transfer window had closed and without being sure that there was a replacement ready to step in. Blackburn, on the other hand, stubbornly stood by Steve Kean despite supporter protests and suffered relegation along with Wolves.

Sunderland, in contrast, were rewarded with an immediate improvement when they replaced Steve Bruce with Martin O'Neill 12 months ago while Fernandes will argue that his decision to get rid of Neil Warnock in January and bring in Hughes was vindicated, even if QPR only survived by the skin of their teeth.

These still feel like early days but the uncomfortable reality for McDermott, Adkins and Hughes is that football management at the highest level is a brutal business. The fact that a man by the name of Harry Redknapp is out of work hardly helps.

Berlusconi happy with AC Milan, says Allegri

The 45-year-old has revealed that the club president is satisfied with the team's performances amidst reports that there are going to be changes at the Milanese outfit

AC Milan boss Massimiliano Allegri remains unfazed by the ongoing rumours that the Serie A giants are contemplating parting company with their head coach.

The Rossoneri have been in far from impressive form in the opening months of the 2012-13 campaign, and high-profile names such as Luciano Spalletti and Pep Guardiola have been touted as potential replacements for the former Cagliari trainer in the past few weeks.

However, Allegri does not fear that he will get the sack any time soon as he still has club owner Silvio Berlusconi's support, following the 1-1 Champions League draw against Malaga on Tuesday.

"I met president Berlusconi in the changing rooms, and he told me he was happy with the performance," Allegri told reporters.

"There have been countless names and rumours circulating. The story bores me a bit and it's up to the club to deal with these situations."

AC Milan recently already released an official statement denying they have approached Guardiola to replace Allegri

Super Eagles move up on FIFA ranking for Novem

The Nigeria senior national football team has moved up in the world-wide ranking for the month of October

On the back of the 6-1 bashing handed out to Liberia in the last Nations Cup qualifier, played in Calabar in October, the Super Eagles of Nigeria have moved up six places in the Fifa ranking just released.
The team presently in Abuja preparing for their friendly match against Venezuela on November 14 in Miami moved up from 559 to 553. The rise is also reflected on the African ranking table, where the team also moved into Africa’s top 10 from being rated 13 on the continent last month.
The countries that are above Nigeria in Africa are: Cote d’Ivoire, who are in first position followed by Algeria, Mali, Ghana, Zambia, Egypt, Central African Republic (CAR) and Gabon.
Of the nine countries above Nigeria, Egypt, CAR, and Gabon did not qualify for the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations Cup coming up in South Africa in January.
Nigeria rose to its highest ever ranking of fifth after the 1994 World Cup where the team was within seconds of qualifying for the quarter finals in the match against eventual finalists, Italy

Unbelievable' Gerrard can go close to Liverpool appearance record, says Reina

Reds legend Ian Callaghan featured in 857 games for the Merseyside club and the Spanish goalkeeper believes the current captain will get near to that milestone

Liverpool goalkeeper Pepe Reina has insisted Steven Gerrard can go close to Reds legend Ian Callaghan's record of 857 games for the club after making his 600th appearance againstNewcastle on Sunday.

The 32-year-old made his debut in 1998 after graduating from the Merseyside club's academy and has enjoyed a trophy-laden career - lifting the Champions League & FA Cup amongst other honours.

But the Spaniard insists the Huyton-born midfielder is not finished yet, and has backed him to get another 200 matches under his belt.

"It's an incredible achievement and all credit to him. He does his best in every single training session and leads by example every day," he told the club's official website.

"It's only a figure, but 600 games is unbelievable and the only thing we can do is encourage him even more and get him to play almost 800!"

The shot-stopper went on to reveal that the Liverpool captain is important to the squad both on and off the field due to his high standards and work ethic.

He added: "He is always leading by example. He always sets the tempo in training and off the field he is an important figure to follow. 

"He knows the club more than anybody and knows the city as well, so he is always there to help you out.

"He is giving his best every day, not just on the training pitch but also in the gym and doing things to prevent injuries as much as he can. Hopefully he will be with us for much longer.

"He will be remembered as a legend. A Liverpool legend - and one of the most important players in English history."

Spalletti: Zenit can still qualify

 

The Italian coach remains optimistic about his side's chances to accompany the already qualified Malaga to the next round of Europe's elite club competition 

Luciano Spalletti believes that Zenit St Petersburg can still reach the knockout stages of the Champions League.

The Russian champions dropped to last place in Group C following their 1-0 away loss against Anderlecht on Tuesday, but their coach has not given up hopes of making it to the next round just yet.

"We are in a tough position in the group now, but taking into account the result in Milan [a 1-1 draw with Malaga], we still have a chance. If we win the last two matches we might still qualify," Spalletti was quoted as saying on the official Uefa website.

"We did not perform to our best against Anderlecht. In the first half we were choosing the wrong time to press the opponents in defence. 

"We were too slow and allowed our opponents to receive the ball between our defence and midfield. That caused us many problems."

Zenit have collected three points from four games, and are trailing second-placed AC Milan by two points.

OKONKWO: 2013 AFCON WILL BE TOUGH

Heartland of Owerri defender, Chibuzor Okonkwo, tells IZUCHUKWU OKOSI in this interview that coach Stephen Keshi and his team will need to work hard if they must win the 2013 Africa  Nations Cup in South Africa.

Chibuzor, what’s your take on the Super Eagles group for the 2013 Africa Nations Cup in South Africa?

The group will be a very difficult one because we are going to play against some tough teams, but I believe that Nigeria will qualify from that group.

What gives you the confidence that the team will make it out of a group that has the current African champions, Zambia, Burkina Faso and Ethiopia that proved their mettle during the qualifiers?

If we want to win the next Nations Cup, then we must beat the best teams and Zambia is one of them. Yes, they are the defending champions but I know the team will be ready for the challenges ahead. The Zambians must be beaten and we have no choice if really we want to fulfill our dream of winning the title for the third time.

Do you see the game against Zambia in January as the toughest in the group or do you think Burkina Faso and Ethiopia could spring some surprises?

I think the game against Zambia will be our toughest game because of the quality of both teams. Zambia will see the game as the chance to avenge their losses to Nigeria as you said earlier and of course Nigeria is highly rated. Obviously, they know who their biggest threat will be in Group C.

Is there any group you think would have been easier for Nigeria?

All the groups are even. There will be no easy group in the 2013 Nations Cup. There could be upsets here and there. In such a big tournament, you should be expecting some shocking results. On paper, some teams are favourites but paper does not play football.

 If I ask you to predict which four teams will reach the semi-finals next year, which countries would you predict?
Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d' Ivoire and Zambia are my tips for the semi-final slots. They have the strongest sides at the moment.

Cote d'Ivoire are always rated high because of their big stars but they have failed to win the Nations Cup since 1992. Are you giving them the chance to re-write that piece of history?

I believe they can but of course I want Nigeria to win. There could be a lot of factors that will ultimately determine the champions, but these countries will reach the latter stages of the competition
What are those factors?

Good preparation, fitness level of players, absence of in-fighting between the FA and the teams, and good officiating.

Do you think countries like Cape Verde that proved to be giant-killers during the qualifiers will find the Nations Cup proper a different terrain?

Absolutely, I think they will struggle to replicate such forms because a lot of these factors I enumerated earlier could derail teams from playing to their potentials, but at the Nations Cup proper, the situation is different because it’s a window for most players. But I don't see Cape Verde repeating that giant-killing strength during the Nations Cup proper.

Do you think Cameroon and Egypt will be missed following their failure to qualify for the Africa Nations Cup for the second time?

Yes... Samuel Eto'O is a big ambassador of the game in Africa and we also have lots of great players in the Egyptian team. So, I think both countries will be missed. However, I know it will still be a big competition in South Africa.

It’s been wonderful speaking with you...
It's always a pleasure, you're welcome!