Tuesday 18 September 2012

Russian money is starting to change Europe's football map

The map of the football world is changing. A side issue of sad-gate has been the realisation that the wages of the world's best footballers are now so huge that there are a handful of clubs who can afford them. Were Cristiano Ronaldo to leave Real Madrid who, realistically, even with the enormous marketing potential he offers, could afford his wages?

Manchester City, perhaps, although they seem to be retrenching. Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), certainly, although they are hamstrung by French tax rates. Manchester United? Chelsea? It's just about possible, although they aren't as free-spending as they once were. Not an Italian team. Not a German team. So that leaves China or the Middle East – or, assuming Ronaldo wants to stay in Europe, Russia, where there still appear to be any number of oligarchs willing to take on the Financial Fair Play regulations.

In an otherwise fairly sedate last week of the transfer window, the startling move came from Zenit St Petersburg, who spent £83m to land Givanildo "Hulk" Souza and Axel Witsel from Porto. Even Russians seem a little bewildered by Hulk's arrival. An interview in Sport-Express reminded the Brazilian that last year he had said he would only leave Porto for a "great" club. "The most important thing for me right now is to do well in the Russian league, to take Zenit to first place and to help Zenit get as close as possible to the Champions League," he replied. "These challenges come from a proposal the club from St Petersburg made to me. In addition, I had a lot of discussions with the president of Zenit and discussed everything with him."

To which came the sceptical follow-up: "But you have the feeling that Zenit are a big club?" Hulk, diplomatically, said they are "growing very rapidly". Yet Hulk's first appearance saw Zenit fall from top spot to fourth as they lost 2-0 at home to Terek Grozny, who are the surprise leaders of the Russian league after eight games. Taken in isolation the game perhaps wouldn't be too worrying for coach Luciano Spalletti. His team faced well-drilled, well-organised opposition and ended up being undone by two late goals, both of which were largely the result of individual errors. But Zenit have now won just one of their last four games and there is a distinct sense of a side having lost its rhythm. "I am disappointed with the home results but I am sure my team will alter the situation," said Spalletti. "So I'm not worried. But, yes, we have to do a lot of hard work to improve."

Zenit's style hasn't changed much since Spalletti took over three years ago. It's still the same, basic, 4-3-3 with Aleksandr Kerzhakov – a far better player than his wayward shooting at Euro 2012 suggested – flanked by Vladimir Bystrov and Viktor Faizulin. Assuming Hulk does force his way into the side, he would presumably play on the right, and there's still Danny to return on the left, giving Spalletti a wealth of options. Witsel, presumably, is seen as a long-term replacement for Konstantin Zyryanov in midfield alongside Igor Denisov and Roman Shirokov, but he has not travelled to Spain for Tuesday's Champions League group tie away to Málaga. The key to this game is probably whether Zenit's three in midfield can dominate Málaga's Ignacio Camacho and whoever replaces Jérémy Toulalan (plus whichever of their plethora of attacking central players is chosen to support whichever of the many centre-forwards they play).

The biggest problem for sides from the east is the calendar. Although both Russia and Ukraine now run an autumn-spring season, the necessarily long, winter hiatus means a comparatively short break in the summer and so, by the time the Champions League groups reach their climax in November, the eastern sides have been playing for almost nine months with just a brief rest, while those from the west are fresh and finding their best form three months into their season. Of course, as has been demonstrated in the Uefa Cup/Europa League by CSKA, Zenit and Shakhtar in the past eight seasons, if Russian sides can make it through the group stage, and can get through the first round of European games after the winter when they're still shifting into gear, they should be far fresher than the western sides come April.

The sides from Russia and Ukraine need results early, hoping to get enough points on the board to be able to battle through November. That's a concern for Zenit as they stutter and also for Spartak, who started the season with three straight wins, lost 5-0 at Zenit, and are without a victory in their last four as they adjust to life under Unai Emery. The Swedish midfielder Kim Kallstrom and the Argentinian centre-back Juan Insaurralde were their most eye-catching summer signings, but with Emery likely to opt for a defensive 4-2-3-1, his big decision is whether to start with Artem Dzyuba as his lone forward or the Nigerian Emmanuel Emenike.

The form of the Ukrainian contenders has been rather more convincing. Shakhtar have been awesome, scoring fewer than three goals only once as they've won their first nine games of the season. They have an abundance of creators, all pulled together by the intelligent, creative play of the 23-year-old Armenian Henrik Mkhitaryan. Mircea Lucescu's side has been dominant for some time in Ukraine; where he has always fallen short in Europe, but a home start against the Danish champions Nordsjaelland, who have won just four of their first nine league games of the season, shouldn't present too much of a problem.

Dynamo, meanwhile, having won seven and lost two domestically (one of the defeats to Shakhtar) warmed up for the trip to PSG with a 3-1 win at home to Karpaty, Niko Kranjcar scoring twice. Yuri Semin has been under pressure for months, but he endures, as does his 4-1-4-1/4-2-3-1 hybrid, with Denys Harmash flitting between the back of midfield and supporting Kranjcar, who is used centrally behind Ideye Brown. If Semin is to retain his job, Dynamo, you feel, have to get off to a good start.

Shakhtar may be in the best form of the four Russian and Ukrainian sides in action this week but, purely because of the money they've spent, it's Zenit who seem at the forefront of the ongoing eastern development.

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